ABC News Instant Poll

It's not on the website yet. It said 42 kerry, 41 Bush, 14 percent tie for the debate. The respondents were 38 Republican, 34 Democrat and the rest percent independent. That means, in a sample the size of 512, with a statistical signifance of 4.5% and an accuracy of greater than 96%, Independents found a Kerry win by almost 3 to 1. Bush's range is -1.5% to 7.5% of .325 (or 32.5% of Independents). So, 32.5% to 40% of Independents are leaning Bush.

67.5% +/-4.5% Yields a range of 63 to 72% of self-identified independent voters who judged a decision in favor of Kerry.

But Bush doesn't like instant polls.