Looking back on History: Election 2004

Election 2004

Love this site! Pay for the real stuff (if I had the money I would), but the daily fix, although it's just a little stale, on the free site is good enough for an insatiable news junkie like me.And now, the campaign is history. At least everything before today. A little review catches us up.Looking back on previous years...

NCPP Presidential Polls 1936 - 2000

We can see that the polls have been largely correct in the past, although I am still looking for a graph which covers the entire election season for at least the past several elections. I could do it myself, I'm sure, if I can find the information in the public domain, but I'm not inclined to.What I want to point out is that, although w did not win the election, inasmuch as you think about it democratically, the polls still favored him, albeit ever so slightly.

Then check out Polling Report for other current numbers:NCPP Polling Report.com 2004 Trial Heat Summary

A final check of the LATimes Electoral Vote Tracker shows you that the home stretch looks good for BIG K. Give Bush Florida and Ohio and get the map to show 269 each. Waving the cursor over the map shows the states where Kerry will be campaigning the hardest: Ohio and Florida cinch it with a victory in either state. So does Missouri or Arizona, where Kerry has surged recently.

The explanation of the 269 ea. scenario brings up some interesting possibilities. Again we will consult Polling Report:NCPP Polling Report.com 2004 Trial Heat Summary

Now, if Congress splits in favor of the Democrats, the new state delegation split can favor Kerry. It could be anybody's game, depending on the results. (I know I like the current poll data, but it could easily change next week in total favor of the GOP.)

And the results really do not matter much, as we learned in 2000. A small manipulation can yield devastating effect on the overall outcome.

And the situation has other eventualities, too. A republican Senate could give Dick to Kerry as veep. And a democratic Senate could give George a veep he does not want. Or, the greens could steal the show? Maybe someday in my lifetime. This two party system has given us enough trouble for too long, but that's a topic for another time.

As for this year, I still want to see the landslide I predicted. Randi Rhodes agrees with me lately, too. But not until later in October will you hear many others expressing this thought, after the polls catch up to the rest of us who already know.